Transportation adoption of new technologies in the next decade

Transportation adoption of new technologies in the next decade have potential to disrupt the industry beyond anything seen in the past 100 years. We are entering a decade that will see real world applications of “Mobility”. Technology is a major driver in the next decade, so much that three blogs are dedicated to it in this series. The next entry focuses on Autonomous Vehicles and after that Platforms, Operating Systems, and Networks. The biggest changes in the next decade are in the “guts” of anything that moves people from point a to point b. The following explores those solutions further through Data, Batteries and Other Transportation Technologies that will adopt and ignite change in the next decade.

Data 

Catalyst for significant change in the next decade rests on Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Natural Language Protocol (NLP). Graph Database, Machine Learning and Data Storage are key drivers of this technology at scale. Data Scientists have found amazing ways to connect disparate data and make it meaningful in real time. The end result of this technology are advanced algorithms that relay real-time optimization of traffic patterns, commute times, energy usage, proactive safety measures, shopping patterns, and maintenance needs. Governments, companies and individuals have newfound access to unbelievable amounts of information through data mining at the micro and macro levels. Privacy issues are and will be major concerns. One view is that Authentic Leaders will create extraordinary applications to advance markets and society with this data. A second view is that this technology is an accelerant to bad behavior and unfair practices. Does it come down to trust? Do we trust ourselves with this technology? Are we mature enough to use it? Are there comparisons to nuclear energy which is either a power source or a bomb?

Batteries and Charging Networks

It’s baffling that car companies rarely share engine technologies to reduce cost. The battery industry already is a shared technology as it powers laptops, phones, drones and now vehicles. Battery performance is poised to increase in the next decade as there is a real consumer demand for longer use and shorter charge times. This is true no matter what kind of battery technologies adopt. There are facts that give EV adoption a huge chance in the coming decade. Fact 1) EV’s sales show growth and there is no reason that will change. Fact 2) Charging Networks are growing through companies like @Tesla, @ABM Industries, @Volta Charging, the recent partnership between VW and Ford through @Electrify America and many others. Fact 3) China is adopting policies to greatly increase their charging networks and push for EV’s as mass adoption. These facts plus many more point to a significant increase in the adoption of EV’s. Total battery production is also poised to increase leading to a decrease in battery costs. Here are open questions if battery prices continue to decrease. Will the mass marketplace move to cheaper vehicles for exclusive use? Will manufacturers have a route to higher margin vehicle sales? How does this play out in the luxury segment? Will a retrofit market emerge that could compete against new car sales? Is there room to accelerate EV adoption rate?

Other Technologies

Cloud, Fog Nodes, and Edge Devices – The following article is a great starter for understanding Edge Computing and how it applies to transportation.

https://medium.com/@lance.eliot/edge-computing-is-big-booster-for-autonomous-self-driving-cars-c36537fcef5f

5G, and Wifi will power networks in the next decade. Transportation networks continue to be the largest disconnected networks of activity in existence. Seamless integration of 5G and Wifi will enable massive commercial opportunity. https://www.forbes.com/sites/miriamtuerk/2019/02/27/how-5g-networks-will-change-america/#6356f2fd11b5

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) will continue as a focus for future mobility solutions. https://www.autonomousvehicletech.com/articles/667-adas-market-worth-6743-billion-by-2025

Blockchain is the biggest potential retail technology change in the next decade. This is a great document from Deloitte. https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/cn/Documents/consumer-business/deloitte-cn-consumer-blockchain-in-the-automotive-industry-en-180809.pdf

Robotics combined with AI provides a big step that many are nervous to take. The question now is how much trust do we have in this technology and the people that develop programming logic? Are there unimaginable permutations that go beyond any human derived testing method?

Are you ready?

Transportation adoption of new technologies in the next decade will be the first real commercial test at scale in the marketplace. There is little government direction on any of the above technologies, which creates an open marketplace opportunity, balanced with major risk. Business Leaders have a heavy burden and gigantic opportunity to pick what will adopt. What industries do you feel will fight change? What companies and industries will embrace change? What governments will get involved to accelerate adoption? Are governments informed enough to make educated decisions?

I’m grateful that you continue to read these blogs and share your thoughts. I look forward to hearing more from you!

Next week’s post will focus on Autonomous Vehicles – Winners and Losers in a mass Adoption Scenario

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